The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July 11 WASDE report again cut the forecast for sugar deliveries for food use in the 2024-25 marketing year.
This marks the third straight monthly cut.
The new forecast stands at 12,045,000 tons—80,000 tons less than June’s estimate and 383,000 tons lower than the previous year.
Looking ahead, the USDA also lowered its 2025-26 sugar delivery estimate to 11,960,000 tons, a drop of 165,000 tons from earlier projections.
Market experts expected this decrease, given weaker demand trends in recent USDA reports and soft contract performance.
Other minor changes for 2024-25 include a slight 4,000-ton drop in beet sugar production and a 3,000-ton rise in high-tier imports.
As a result, ending stocks are now forecast at 2,132,000 tons—the highest since 2013.
For 2025-26, domestic production is expected to decline by 100,000 tons from the previous year.
Beet sugar output is projected at 5,097,000 tons, while refined cane sugar will likely reach 4,098,000 tons.
Imports from Mexico are also down, reflecting limits set under trade agreements.
The USDA did not announce the refined sugar quota yet, but an estimate close to past years is expected.
Until then, USDA uses higher high-tier import projections to balance the numbers.
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Photo by: usda.gov